Rain becomes very isolated, staying warm and humid Thursday

Today's Forecast

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers through the AM, patchy fog also likely close to the coast. Drier and breezy conditions expected during the PM, with isolated storms possible. Winds: SSE 15-25 mph, High: 81 (78-84)

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy and very warm and muggy with spotty showers possible. Winds: S 8-12 mph, Low: 70 (67-72)

Friday: Mostly cloudy with PM storms, some on the stronger side. Main threats from any strong to severe storms will be gusty winds and small hail. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Winds: SSW 10-15 mph, High: 85 (82-89), Low: 65 (61-67)

Saturday: Partly cloudy with spotty AM showers. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, turning partly cloudy. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

Very tropical-like conditions have arrived out there on this Thursday, as what’s left of Tropical Depression Bertha passes to the west. The rest of Wednesday stayed cloudy, muggy, but dry before a few scattered showers on the eastern edge of the tropical remnants moved through early this morning. With lots of moisture still in place, scattered showers are still going to be possible the rest of the morning, with patchy fog likely along the Chesapeake Bay for a few hours once again. This afternoon conditions turn breezy, but overall dry. Enough dry air and a lack of forcing will keep showers and storms at bay, though a few isolated storms can’t be ruled out. This lack of rainfall is going to continue through Thursday night too, though it will stay very warm and muggy.

On Friday, a shortwave drops south and east across the Great Lakes, just as the stalled low from the south-central Plains gets moving as well. These two join up just as a surface cold front arrives Friday afternoon, kicking up plenty of thunderstorm activity to end the week. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has the 4 State Region in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Friday. It’s looking like these storms will form line segments, meaning the main threats will be gusty winds and small hail. Even still, an isolated tornado can’t be completely ruled out if an isolated storm gets into the right environment, though this scenario isn’t very likely. We’ll be keeping a close eye on conditions as this all develops in the next 24 hours.

Beyond all of that into the weekend, we calm down our weather quite a bit. The cold front exits Saturday morning, clearing skies and dropping temperatures. Sunday and Monday will have mostly sunny skies, though temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below average. Clouds begin to return Tuesday as temperatures warm back up, with scattered storm chances on Wednesday as a weak system pushes through.

Have a great rest of your Thursday everyone!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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