Hot and humid with PM storms, a few possibly severe

Today's Forecast

Friday: Mostly cloudy but dry into the early afternoon. Some fog over the Potomac Highlands through mid-morning, also some sunshine into the afternoon. Showers and storms develop in the PM; a few storms could be strong to severe. Winds: SSW 10-15 mph, High: 85 (82-89)

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, wrapping up into the morning hours. Winds: WNW 5-10 mph, Low: 64 (58-67)

Saturday: Clearing skies, turning partly cloudy. Winds: NW 10-15 mph, High: 78 (74-81)

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a stray shower possible just before sunset. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with lows in the 50’s and 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

After yesterday’s damp start, we stayed very warm and humid the rest of the day but any storms that developed stayed away. That warmth and humidity stuck around through the overnight, as we have one more very warm and humid day in store. Overall this morning will be dry, with some dense fog in the eastern West Virginia panhandle. A line of convection is drifting northward toward southern Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay, but this should miss us. Some sunshine will break out into the early afternoon, bumping us well into the 80’s after such a warm start.

Showers and storms are still expected to develop this afternoon, with a chance for some severe weather still present. However, it seems the best forcing and ingredients lies to the north, and there’s a bit of a cap in place as you head to the east toward some of the metro areas. So, there is a narrow window where severe weather is fairly favorable, right along the I-81 corridor. This doesn’t mean anyone outside of this area is in the clear, but this is the likely location any severe storms will develop. The time window for these is still 2-8 PM roughly, and the main threats will be gusty straight line winds and hail. Where these storms develop will see the most rainfall, others that don’t see any storms are likely to have a fairly dry day.

By tonight, the cold front moves through, clearing clouds, rainfall, and humidity into Saturday. We really start to cool down a good bit into Sunday and Monday with high pressure overhead and decent northwest winds in place. This high shifts east on Tuesday, marking a return of some warmer temperatures and moisture. Starting Tuesday night, weak disturbances pass through, bringing slight chances of showers and storms back for next Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures return to the 80’s.

Have a great Friday and weekend everyone!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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