We have a few things working in our favor today. We have lots of clouds this morning with a few light showers in the region or at least showers in the atmosphere that are barely making it to the ground in at least a form of a few sprinkles. Instability right now is currently low.
This instability should grow as the front draws near. The low-pressure system will travel along the Mason Dixon Line. We will be in that “danger zone” but not as bad as those to the south and east into Southern Maryland to portions of Central and Southern Virginia.
For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center has downgraded the majority of our region to at least a slight risk; several storms will still be severe but scattered severe. We may have a good spread of rain at some time, but the chance of numerous severe thunderstorms has lessened a bit unless you are between Southern Maryland and the North Carolina – Virginia border.
The current weather sounding also shows very little speed and directional shearing of the winds. All of this also has within it a low convective available potential energy.
However, we are right on the line when it comes to small to moderate convective potential with a good chance of thunderstorms. So for this region, stay alert to changing weather conditions. We have a lot going for us today, but as in anything, if things start to change the makeup of the atmosphere, we could be in for an exciting afternoon and evening. Regardless, Scott and I will be here to track the potential for severe storms in the region.
Stay tuned to WDVM 25 for all of your local weather information.
Here is a look at your 7-day forecast:
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Several will be severe. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday night: Expect mostly cloudy skies with possible severe thunderstorms. Lows will drop into the 70’s. Winds will be out of the north and west at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Be sure to plan for partly cloudy skies. We will see a chance of a shower during the morning, but there will be a slight chance of thundershowers during the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid-80’s.
Thursday: Watch for partly sunny skies with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low to mid-80’s.
Friday: We will stay partly sunny with a slight chance of a stray shower. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80’s.
Saturday: Temperatures will be on the rise with partly sunny skies. One or two of us may see a pop-up shower. Highs will be in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of an afternoon pop-up, otherwise dry. Highs will be in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.
Monday: We are still looking out for next Monday with a chance of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80’s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Meteorologist Derek Bowen