A broken line of storms brings a threat for severe weather

Today's Forecast

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with late PM/early evening scattered showers and storms. A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Winds: WNW 10-20 mph, High: 93 (89-97)

Tuesday night: Storms end early, staying partly cloudy. Winds: NW 5-10 mph, Low: 67 (62-70)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms, mainly to the west over the mountains. A few storms could be severe with gusty winds. Winds: W 8-12 mph, High: 91 (88-95), Low: 71 (68-74)

Thursday: Partly cloudy and hot with a stray mountain storm possible. Highs will be in the 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with tropical showers and storms likely. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

A few showers and storms we’re seen here and there yesterday, but overall it stayed a warm and humid start to the week. Today that much won’t change, as we’ll see highs well into the 90’s with plenty of humidity. A cold frontal boundary is dropping south from the Great Lakes this morning, creating a strong line of storms already in Upstate New York. This front will be arriving here late this afternoon into the evening, bringing the chance for storms along with it. Overall, the ingredients are there for some severe weather to be possible during the time storms could pass through from 4-8 PM, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of the region in a Moderate Risk. However, signs are pointing to these storms struggling to hold together as they make their approach, arriving as a broken line with a few cells on the severe side. This still bears some watching, but we’re not expecting a widespread swath of severe weather.

Tonight conditions will calm as the front passes. On Wednesday this boundary will become stalled to our south and west, allowing for additional storms to develop mainly over the mountains. A few storms could be severe once again, but confidence for much in terms of severe weather is low at this point as well. Wednesday night into Thursday the stalled front returns north as a warm front. This shouldn’t lead to much rainfall, but our temperatures will shoot up, reaching the middle and upper 90’s Thursday afternoon.

Late in the week and into the weekend the setup remains fairly interesting. A low will be tracking across the Great Lakes with a cold front, while whatever is left of soon to be Hurricane Laura will be heading toward the Ohio River Valley. We’ll see some showers and more clouds Friday thanks to the low pressure center. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly where the center of what was Laura ends up, but it’s likely we’ll have more rainfall Saturday thanks to the tropical influence. Canadian high pressure arrives behind all of this by Sunday, cooling us down, drying us out, and allowing for a comfortable end to the weekend.

Have a great Tuesday and keep an eye to the sky later!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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