Wind and cold to be the main players the next couple of days

Nova Forecast

Wednesday: Fog and low clouds through the morning, with clearing skies and breezy conditions this afternoon. Winds: NW 15-25 mph, High: 40 (36-45)

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible to the south. Winds: NNW 10-15 mph, Low: 28 (25-32)

Thursday: Morning clouds then clearing skies and rather windy and chilly conditions the rest of the day. Winds: NW 20-30 mph, Gusts: 30-40 mph, High: 34 (30-39), Low: 18 (14-23)

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s with lows in the teens.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 30’s with lows in the 20’s.

Sunday: Cloudy with a wintry mix, though mostly snow is likely to fall. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Monday: Cloudy with a wintry mix, this time with more rain. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with lingering AM snow showers. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30’s with lows in the middle to upper 20’s.

Forecast Discussion

We’ve transitioned from icy conditions over to foggy conditions for this morning. As temperatures rose yesterday all of the leftover ice melted away and provided an ample source of moisture for fog development. Calm winds and warmer overnight temperatures also helped with this, and we’ve had areas of dense fog lowering visibility below a mile across the region. The fog and low clouds will be exiting over the next few hours as winds begin to pick up from the northwest. While it’s going to be slightly warmer than yesterday, it won’t feel like it with breezy northwest winds keeping wind chills in the 30’s. Clouds return overnight as a lot crosses to the south, and some snow showers could push into central Virginia and southern Maryland, not amounting to much though.

Get used to the wind and cold, because we’re certainly stuck with it over the next couple of days. It what has been a rather mild winter, highs will struggle to reach the 30’s both Thursday and Friday and overnight lows are going to plummet well into the teens. At the same time, winds are going to peak Thursday at around 20-30 mph, with gusts of 30-40 mph likely. This will provide frigid wind chills both day and night, as wind chills could likely be near zero Thursday night. The good news is that winds will lighten up a bit Friday during the coldest conditions, but it’ll still be breezy. Saturday remains dry and we will be warming up some ahead of the next round of wintry precipitation.

Speaking of that, Sunday through next Tuesday is looking a bit messy. Now, there continues to be some spread in the model data, with a few models keeping this storm and its precipitation well south of us. These appear to be outliers however, and this storm system is likely to pass just south of us Sunday into Monday, with a high pressure center to our northeast. With all the cold air in place in the days prior and that high pressure nearby, it should be cold enough to support mainly snow west of I-95 on Sunday. Temperatures will rise and more rain is likely to mix in Monday, but either way it’s going to be a messy few days. Until models come into more of an agreement, it’s tough to talk potential snow totals as of yet, but once we know more we’ll break that down. Tuesday this storm will be exiting, with just some lingering morning snow showers possible.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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