Tropical rain bands and storms continue into tonight

Nova Forecast

Wednesday: Cloudy with tropical rain bands and storms. Heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, and a few storms could turn severe with gusty winds and a spin-up tornado or two possible. Winds: SSE 10-20 mph, High: 84 (80-86)

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with rain early, then patchy fog late. Winds: SSW 5-10 mph, Low: 70 (68-73)

Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Winds: WNW 5-10 mph, High: 88 (83-91), Low: 71 (68-74)

Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with spotty showers and storms possible. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

We caught a relatively dry break yesterday, but Fred’s remnants didn’t wait in the wings too long. Tropical rain bands on the northeastern side of the storm have already rolled in overnight, and there’s more to come. The center of Fred’s circulation is located over central WV, and we’re going to remain on the eastern side of the storm all day long. We’ll mostly see on and off rain bands through mid-morning, but as we warm up some an extended line of broken storms is likely to roll in from west to east. It’s along this line that some severe storms could develop, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a few spin-up supercells and tornados occur as well. So, from mid-morning into the late afternoon we’ll have to watch for flash flooding, damaging winds, and the possibility of a few spin-up tornados.

By tonight, Fred’s remnants will push northeast, and we’ll see a gradual end to any additional rain and storms by midnight. While Fred may be heading out, there’s no end in sight to the warmth and humidity. As a matter of fact, Thursday looks to be even a little warmer than today with more sunshine likely. A disturbance will be pushing north, and this could spark some isolated showers and storms. Heading into Friday and Saturday, it looks like there will be a slightly better chance of storms with a trough overhead and plenty of moisture and energy still to work with.

While we won’t completely eliminate the chance for rain and storms into next week, high pressure will help bring in some drier air by Sunday. There will also be a backdoor cold front trying to drop in, but it looks like this front will be struggling to make any impact by next Tuesday. So, just expect isolated to spotty showers and storms with continued highs in the 80’s and warm and muggy overnights as well from Sunday into next Tuesday.

Stay weather aware out there and have a great Wednesday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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