Some flooding concern as steady rainfall crosses Northern Virginia

Nova Forecast

Monday: Cloudy and slightly cooler, with light rain expected, mainly in the PM. Heavier rain will be seen to the south and west. Winds: SE 8-12 mph, High: 72 (66-75)

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with showers lingering but dissipating, areas of fog/mist likely. Winds: SE 8-12 mph, Low: 64 (60-67)

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Winds: SE 5-10 mph, High: 78 (74-81), Low: 68 (65-70)

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with stray showers and storms possible. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the 50’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

This past weekend certainly started on a very soggy note, as plenty of showers and storms pushed through late Friday and for the first half of Saturday. But in the wake of all of that, we had very pleasant conditions to end it out yesterday, with sunshine, lower 80’s, and very low humidity. As we wrap up the month of August, it’s going to feel pretty fall-like, but mostly thanks to lots of clouds and rainfall being around. A wave of low pressure is pushing across the Appalachians this morning, and it will pass overhead late today into tonight. Clouds have already arrived, and light rainfall is soon to follow, mainly falling in the afternoon and onward for most. With high pressure still in place over the Northeast, the heaviest rainfall stays to our southwest, and rainfall will be limited the more north you go. Cool southeast flow keeps highs in the lower to middle 70’s.

This system weakens and eventually washes out into Tuesday, giving us some showers and lots of fog/mist into tonight. The next few days features a pretty zonal atmospheric flow over us, with lows cycling through Canada and dropping weak disturbances and fronts our way through Thursday. All of this will happen as the high pressure still stationed off of the Atlantic coastline to the southeast pumps warm and humid air our way. Starting tomorrow, onshore flow from the southeast keeps a slight chance of showers, clouds, and highs in the 70’s around. Wednesday a warm front passes by, bumping us back into the 80’s with scattered showers and storms possible.

On Thursday, a batch of weak cold fronts should be crossing the area, leading to additional isolated rainfall. This by far will be the warmest day, with highs back into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s with plenty of humidity. There is still some uncertainty on Friday, mostly on whether or not these fronts will be gone or if they linger and give us more rain. Given current trends for right now, kept minor rain chance in place to end the week. Either way high pressure drives south out of Canada for next weekend, providing lots of sunshine and very comfortable conditions for the holiday weekend.

Have a great Monday and start to the week folks!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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