Soggy weather wraps up, turning windy this afternoon

Nova Forecast

Monday: Cloudy and foggy with rain slowly ending through the AM, then turning windy and clearing through the PM. Winds: NW 20-30 mph, Gusts: 35-45 mph, High: 51 (47-54)

Monday night: Continued clearing and staying windy with colder temperatures. Winds: NW 15-25 mph, Low: 25 (22-29)

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies. Winds: WNW 8-12 mph, High: 44 (40-48), Low: 32 (30-35)

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50’s with lows in the 30’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the middle to upper 20’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Forecast Discussion

We’ve picked up an inch of rainfall on average across the viewing area since rain turned rather steady yesterday morning. Couple that with plenty of snowmelt, and that’s been the cause of numerous River Flood Watches and Warnings this morning. Some smaller streams and creeks across the eastern WV panhandle and western MD are already experiencing minor flooding, with water level rises expected to continue through tomorrow along major rivers like the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers. Continue to stay vigilant and if you encounter flooded areas, turn around and find a different route. The good news is that rain will be ending this morning, with dense fog also heading out. Skies will begin to clear this afternoon as winds pick up in the wake of this storm system.

Windy conditions are going to reach their peak this evening, with steady winds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 35-45 mph. It will be getting colder pretty quickly tonight as a reinforcing cold front really throws temperatures back down. Any leftover standing water could re-freeze into Tuesday morning, so black ice is something to watch for tomorrow. High pressure is going to give us a sunny but seasonably chilly rest of the day from there. For the rest of the forecast period, it looks like the only storm system that will come anywhere close to us will be on Wednesday. Models are in fairly good agreement that this storm is going to stay south of us, and the setup certainly makes that seem likely. So, outside of some additional clouds and slightly warmer temperatures, not much else will change for mid-week.

Given the flooding issues from all the rain and snowmelt currently ongoing, we couldn’t ask for a better extended forecast to help get those water levels back down some. Despite an upper level trough keeping seasonably chilly temperatures around, high pressure at the surface will continue to keep us dry through the end of the week and next weekend as well. Some days will feature more cloud cover than others, but generally there will be plenty of sunshine to help soils dry out and soak up some of that water.

Stay safe and dry out there, and have a great Monday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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