Rain just misses us today, much soggier conditions Thursday

Nova Forecast

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with pop-up mountain showers and storms possible. Winds: SSE 8-12 mph, High: 79 (75-82)

Wednesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and a storm or two possible. Winds: SSE 5-10 mph, Low: 64 (60-66)

Thursday: Cloudy with rain and storms, gusty winds and heavy rain are possible with any severe storms. Winds: SSW 10-15 mph, High: 80 (75-82), Low: 65 (62-67)

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, mainly early. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the 60’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a stray shower or storm possible. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with spotty showers and storms possible. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

As the day wore on yesterday, it was definitely apparent that a storm system is slowly approaching, with high clouds thickening up into the evening. We’ve managed to stay dry through the overnight hours, but light rain is beginning to arrive just to our west in the Ohio River Valley. For the most part, this divide between the soggy and dry conditions will persist, but a few pop-up showers and storms can’t be completely ruled out along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains today. The rest of us to the east are going to just see lots of clouds, temperatures similar to yesterday, and it will start feeling muggier. Scattered showers will arrive by tonight though, becoming more numerous toward morning.

The low pressure center currently over the Southern Plains will start ejecting northeast rapidly tomorrow, pushing a couple of fronts our direction. This will pull in lots of moisture, sparking up rain and storms tomorrow morning. There will be a better chance for storms in the afternoon once some heat and energy are able to build up. The question will be just how much energy can build up, because if enough does, there is a chance for severe storms into tomorrow evening, mainly east of I-81. Any stronger storms could have gusty winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats, with flash flooding being the bigger concern for any locations seeing repetitive storms moving through. While some showers and storms will linger, most of the activity winds down Thursday night.

Scattered showers and storms will remain possible on Friday, but conditions have trended a lot drier into the afternoon. High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will nudge back in over the weekend, setting us up for even more heat and humidity well into next week. It appears the ridge will have a strong enough influence to keep rain out of the forecast Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures jumping into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. By next Monday and Tuesday, a slight chance for a few showers and storms will return given all the heat and humidity, with temperatures still lingering in the lower 90’s with plenty of humidity.

Have a great Wednesday and stay dry out there tomorrow!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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