Pushing into the 90’s today, much cooler by the holiday weekend

Nova Forecast

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid, with scattered PM storms. A few storms could turn severe with damaging winds and up to quarter-sized hail possible. Winds: SW 8-12, High: 91 (87-94)

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early. Winds: W 5-10 mph, Low: 66 (64-69)

Thursday: Partly cloudy and not as humid. Winds: NW 8-12 mph, High: 84 (81-88), Low: 61 (57-63)

Friday: Cloudy with rain, a few storms are possible too. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs will be in the 60’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

We had a quiet one out there yesterday, other than the small batch of storms that developed down toward Woodstock, VA. Clouds steadily cleared out and we had warmer temperatures in the afternoon. It has stayed extremely mild overnight, and that’s going to set us up for a rather hot and humid one today. With plenty of energy to work with and a cold front ever so steadily approaching from Canada, showers and storms are going to fire up in the early afternoon. The better environment for stronger storms will be to the north closer to the front, but the entire area is under a Slight Risk as of this morning. We’ll see a broken line of storms through the mid and late afternoon, with a few cells potentially turning severe. Main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and up to quarter-size hail.

This activity will begin to wrap up just past sunset, with some isolated showers lingering around until a little after midnight. The actual cold front will cross the area early Thursday morning, which will drastically drop the humidity factor. It still won’t cool down just yet though, as highs will still be in the 80’s. The cold front will end up stalling just south of us and act as a “path” for the next low to follow as it heads our way from the center of the country. With slightly cooler air but plenty of moisture still to work with, this low will bring a nice, steady, soaking rainfall in for Friday, especially into the afternoon and evening. It will stay cool and soggy into Saturday.

While we certainly need and will take any rainfall we can get after how dry it’s been, this certainly isn’t the most ideal start to the holiday weekend. There is some good news though, as high pressure rolls in by Sunday and Memorial Day itself, bringing back some very comfortable and beautiful conditions. It won’t be the warmest, but temperatures should return to the 70’s with mostly sunny skies. We’ll continue to warm up and stay dry into next Tuesday, as many will return to work with temperatures heading back into the 80’s.

Have a great Wednesday and watch for those storms out there!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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