Multiple rounds of storms today, clearing out nicely by Friday

Nova Forecast

Thursday: Increasing clouds through the morning, with the first batch of rain and storms arriving by mid-day. Another round of rain and storms is expected into the evening. Severe storms are possible, with strong winds, hail, flash flooding, and a spin-up tornado possible. Winds: SSW 5-10 mph, High: 87 (82-90)

Thursday night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, a few storms could be strong early. Winds: W 5-10 mph, Low: 69 (66-71)

Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy at times. Winds: NW 10-20 mph, High: 86 (81-89), Low: 58 (54-61)

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

An active day is ahead of us as the environment is looking to prime itself for plenty of storms. A shortwave is dropping out of the Great Lakes, with a surface low and associated warm/cold fronts coming along with it. This whole complex of features has created a massive cluster of storms over Michigan and Ohio, and this is weakening but heading our way. If the clouds and even some rain can hold together and move into our area, that will be huge in limiting the amount of heating and energy we can build up for storms later today. It looks like we are going to turn fairly cloudy but stay dry most of the morning. The first batch of rain and storms will move in around mid-day associated with what’s left of the morning storm complex.

Storms will remain scattered about the area through the afternoon, but there should be a break for some of us into the evening. The second batch of storms will arrive with the actual cold front this evening into the overnight hours. Thankfully we’ll start to lose heating as the sun sets, which will keep overnight storms a little more tame. Even still, severe weather is very possible all afternoon into the overnight, with an Enhanced Risk in place. The most likely threats are strong winds, hail, and flash flooding, with a spin-up tornado not out of the question.

Here’s the good news: the forecast is looking great the rest of the way through. Canadian high pressure will fall into place behind this potent storm system for Friday and Saturday. At first, humidity will be the first to drop with breezy conditions Friday. Saturday will be both cool and comfortable under plenty of sunshine. Another cold front is set to bring back a brief batch of showers and storms Sunday, but also usher in more cool air for Monday. We’ll be watching how a coastal low sets up for the middle of next week, as we could see additional showers into next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay weather aware out there today and have a great Thursday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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