Mostly dry Tuesday in store, hot and humid by Wednesday

Nova Forecast

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated light rain showers through the AM, mainly to the north. Drier conditions expected in the PM. Winds: SW 8-12 mph, High: 79 (74-82)

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies, turning warm and muggy as well. Winds: SSW 5-10 mph, Low: 63 (58-65)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, hot and humid. Scattered PM showers and storms expected, with a few storms turning severe with gusty winds and small hail. Winds: W 10-20 mph, High: 92 (86-95), Low: 68 (64-70)

Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s with lows in the 60’s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a stray AM shower possible, otherwise dry conditions expected. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

Hopefully everyone enjoyed the beautiful conditions yesterday, because we’ll be quickly turning warm and muggy over the next 24 hours. Clouds are quickly arriving this morning, with a batch of rainfall over western Pennsylvania. This rain is running into a lot of dry air along the East Coast that is turning it very light as it nears the 4 State Region. Light, isolated showers will be possible through the morning, mainly to the north closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. Outside of that chance, the rest of the day will be cloudy but dry. Highs won’t be getting too warm just yet, mainly upper 70’s to the north and lower 80’s to the south.

Tonight will be a different story however, as a warm front starts its approach and moves through. Overnight temperatures will only cool into the lower 60’s with humidity ramping up. By Wednesday, we’ll firmly be in the warm sector of a low over the Great Lakes, spiking temperatures well into the 90’s with a few lower 80’s in the highest elevations. As the afternoon wanes, the cold front from this system slowly drops south, providing enough forcing for showers and storms to develop. A few of these storms could be severe, especially closer to the Mason-Dixon Line once again. The deciding factor in all this is when the cold front arrives, because if it arrives near or just after sunset, the severe threat will be fairly minimal.

Both Thursday and Friday remain warm and muggy, as the cold front mentioned above stalls out over the region. The heat, moisture, and frontal boundary will be enough for daily storm chances during this time. Late Friday into Saturday morning, another cold front will sweep east, clearing out the stalled boundary and humidity. It will take a little time before we cool back down a bit, likely not until Sunday. Even still, high pressure keeps us dry and fairly humidity-free from Saturday into early next week.

Have a great rest of your Tuesday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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