Mid-90’s set to make a return before the next front arrives

Nova Forecast

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot but not as humid. Winds: Light N, High: 93 (89-96)

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies. Winds: L&V, Low: 69 (64-72)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with spotty PM storms possible, mainly to the southeast. Winds: NNW 4-8 mph, High: 92 (88-96), Low: 68 (65-72)

Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the 60’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with spotty showers and storms possible. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

They were few and far between if you look at the whole viewing area, but we did have some storms roll through last evening. The highest concentration of storms and storm damage occurred around the DC metro, including Fairfax and Montgomery Counties. All of this activity wrapped up after sunset, and the front responsible for all the activity is south of us. We’re looking at a much quieter day today, with plenty of sunshine and heat as temperatures rise into the middle 90’s. Humidity levels will actually be manageable though as drier northwest flow aloft continues, so heat index won’t be a concern. There is a Code Orange Air Quality Alert in effect for the immediate Baltimore and DC metros though given the heat and stagnant air.

Mild conditions aren’t going anywhere, as some minor disturbances approach the area. For Wednesday, a backdoor front will drop out of the Northeast, stalling out over Maryland. This will be enough to spark up spotty showers and storms, but much like yesterday these storms will be fairly localized, with our southeastern counties most likely to see stormy weather. Heading into Thursday, there will be a higher chance for storms across the entire area as a cold front drops out of the Great Lakes. There’s a lot of uncertainty here given the variable pattern, but there’s a chance for severe weather if the front doesn’t arrive until later in the day. Something to keep a close eye on, as the environment will be favorable to support strong winds and heavy rainfall in the afternoon.

Much cooler and very comfortable air is expected behind this front, with Canadian high pressure at the surface and continued strong northwest flow aloft under the massive upper-level trough that will still be sticking around over the Northeast. Temperatures will fall into the 80’s during the day and the 50’s at night under very clear skies Friday and Saturday, with even chillier overnight readings possible into the mountains. We’ll see another cold front likely moving in Sunday, but overall rain chances are still in question given how much dry air will be in place. Expect at least spotty rainfall into the start of next week, with yet another reinforcing shot of unseasonably cool and comfortable air for the first few days of August.

Have a fantastic Tuesday everyone!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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