Localized heavy rainfall, minor flood issues possible in Northern Virginia

Nova Forecast

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with patchy AM fog/mist around early and scattered showers and storms possible all day. Heavy rainfall and flooding is possible, especially to the SE. Winds: ESE 4-8 mph, High: 83 (78-85)

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with showers lingering around early, then patchy fog possible by morning. Winds: ENE 4-8 mph, Low: 67 (65-70)

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower possible well to the south, but otherwise dry. Winds: NNE 10-15 mph, High: 79 (75-82), Low: 61 (58-64)

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible to the south. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 60’s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and a few storms. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Monday: Clearing skies expected, turning partly cloudy. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the middle to upper 50’s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Forecast Discussion

Ever so gradually clouds filled in across the region late yesterday into tonight, and finally the leading edge of rainfall pushed in. Many have seen at least brief rainfall overnight, and we still have some showers lingering near I-81. Fairly steady rain has already fallen across Fairfax County (VA), and another round of steady to heavy rain is pushing north through southern Maryland. Because of the continued threat for some heavy rainfall with this tropical moisture, a Flash Flood Watch is in place in Fairfax (VA) and Montgomery (MD) Counties until 8 PM. Potential for heavy rainfall extends beyond these counties further west into the viewing area as well, but for now that chance is low. It bears watching though, as scattered showers and storms will continue to push through into the evening.

Overnight into Friday, a weak cold front will finally sweep through and clear out most of this tropical moisture and end any rainfall. To our north, a decently strong high pressure center will be in place, and the front that just passed by will stall south of us. Because we’ll be close enough to the stalled front, clouds will linger around Friday, but some sunshine will be seen. A stray shower cannot be ruled out in Northern Virginia, otherwise it’ll be dry. On Saturday the front begins to nudge a bit closer, so there will be a better chance for some isolated showers across Northern Virginia. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal both of these days with less humidity than we’re going to see today.

The strong low that’s been out west this week finally makes its way east on Sunday, bringing a pretty stout cold front with it. Numerous showers and a few storms will push through as a result, giving us a soggy end to the weekend. Behind the front, we’re in for a nice and cool start to next week. Canadian high pressure dives south, and from Monday through next Wednesday we’ll have plenty of sunshine with highs in the lower and middle 70’s and lows down into the 50’s.

Stay dry and have a great Thursday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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