Flooding, damaging winds, tornadoes are all concerns today

Nova Forecast

Wednesday: Steady rain, a few storms possible through the morning, with heavy downpours and strong storms in the afternoon. Flooding is likely, and any severe storms could produce damaging winds and tornados. Winds: ESE 5-10 mph, High: 76 (73-80)

Wednesday night: Cloudy with rain and a few storms before midnight, then turning breezy and clearing quickly late. Winds: N 15-25 mph, Low: 61 (59-64)

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. Winds: N 15-25 mph, High: 76 (73-80), Low: 55 (49-58)

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s with lows in the middle to upper 50’s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the lower to middle 60’s.

Labor Day: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

Ida has finally arrived, and this storm is no doubt making its presence felt already. Steady rain overspread the area just before midnight, and has mostly kept going ever since. Locations closer to DC caught a very strong thunderstorm that quickly dumped a couple of inches of rain before heading to the northeast as well, prompting Flood Warnings. We’re entering into a little bit of a lull in rain for our southeastern locations, with steady rain continuing to fall back to the north and west. We’ll keep this trend going for a few more hours before the center of Ida’s remnants arrives. From there, conditions will quickly deteriorate into the afternoon.

The confluence of a stalled frontal boundary and the remnants of Ida will create the perfect environment for very heavy downpours and an elevated flood threat later on. Along with that, south of Ida’s actual track will feature the best ingredients for rotating, severe storms that could produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes across Northern Virginia and central/southern MD. These will all be threats we need to watch for into this evening. By 8-10 PM, the storms and rain will gradually pull away to the northeast, finally bringing an end to Ida’s impacts as we clear out quickly overnight. Rain totals will top out around the 3-6” range across WV, western MD, and southern PA, with locally higher amounts of 7-8” possible. There will be lesser totals to the south and east, but 1-4” of rain is still possible and could cause flooding.

Even after the rain ends, river levels are likely to stay elevated the next few days, so Flood Warnings are likely going to be needed until those go down. The good news is that they’ll have that chance to, as Canadian high pressure will be moving in and keeping us very clear and comfortable straight into the weekend. On the heels of Ida, it’s likely to be a bit breezy on Thursday, but after that it will be extremely calm. Some isolated showers could roll through with a front on Sunday, but otherwise we’ll stay near average temperature-wise and stay fairly quiet into next week.

Stay dry, watch for flooding, and stay safe out there today everyone.

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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