Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, 2-3″ of rain possible

Nova Forecast

1st Day of Fall: Cloudy and breezy with on and off rain, becoming steadier/heavier late in the day. Winds: SE 10-20 mph, High: 76 (73-79)

Wednesday night: Cloudy and breezy with steady rain and a few storms. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible. Winds: SE 10-20 mph, Low: 62 (59-65)

Thursday: Cloudy with AM showers and a few storms before clearing some late. Winds: Var. 5-10 mph, High: 72 (68-75), Low: 51 (46-54)

Friday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the lower to middle 50’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the middle to upper 50’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s with lows in the 50’s.

Forecast Discussion

Scattered light rain showers have been falling here and there since last evening, giving us a bit of a damp start to this first day of fall. We’re seeing the tropical moisture from the long dissipated remnants of Nicholas this morning, with continued chances for on and off rainfall into this afternoon. When the rain is falling, it will gradually go from light to more steady over time, especially over the mountains. By this evening, a strong cold front to our west will finally arrive, with plenty of heavy rain of its own. This band of heavy rain will be our biggest concern, as damp ground along with a lot of heavy rain in a short period of time could cause flooding. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the western half of the viewing area through Thursday morning, as 2-3” of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts mixed in.

Along with the rain, it will be breezy and some storms could mix in as the front moves through, though thankfully the best chance for storms will be at night, keeping them weaker overall. This cold front will take its sweet time heading out to the east, so rain is likely to continue tomorrow morning. By Thursday afternoon some clearing is likely to finally kick in though, with much cooler air on the way. After staying in the 60’s and 70’s during all of the soggy weather, we’ll see lows plummet into the 40’s and 50’s by the time we wake up Friday morning. We’ll deal with some lingering clouds, but afternoon highs should hover around 70 degrees with another round of crisp and cool air for Friday night.

This weekend is looking like a picture perfect start to the fall, as Canadian high pressure lingers nearby. Expect plenty of sunshine, very comfortable afternoon temperatures, and cool nights for both Saturday and Sunday. It will warm up a bit with some return flow from the south into Monday and next Tuesday, but we should still stay in the 70’s each afternoon. There’s a possibility we could see a few showers with a weak disturbance Tuesday afternoon, but we’ll have to watch this for now and expect dry conditions for the time being.

Stay dry and have a great start to the fall!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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