Clearing skies this afternoon, colder and breezy Tuesday

Nova Forecast

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with steady rain through the morning, then some clearing and mainly isolated showers through the afternoon. Winds: Var. 10-20 mph, High: 58 (50-60)

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few valley sprinkles, any precipitation over the mountains will transition to snow showers. Winds: W 10-15 mph, Low: 37 (26-40)

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered areas of valley drizzle, snow showers are expected over the mountains to the west. Snow accumulations of 3-6”, locally up to 8”, possible across western Garrett County. Winds: WNW 10-20 mph, High: 41 (30-44), Low: 29 (22-32)

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s with lows in the 30’s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 40’s with lows in the 30’s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the lower to middle 30’s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with isolated valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Forecast Discussion

Welcome to the last day of November! It’s a nasty one out there as the month ends, with a stout storm system crossing the Mid-Atlantic. Around 2 AM this morning steady rain began falling, and it’s going to keep rolling through the first half of the day. As the low continues off to the northeast this afternoon, a dry slot will start to build behind this morning’s shield of rainfall, giving us a break, if not an end to the rainfall for the day altogether. Once all is said and done, this brief burst of rain will still be enough to give us 1.25-1.75” of accumulation. Flooding issues, if any, will be minimal given the progressive nature of this storm. It will remain breezy throughout as well, from today through the overnight.

Heading into Tuesday, a lot of cold air will be getting pulled down from the north, and a transition from rain to snow will occur over the far western mountains. Upslope flow created by strong northwest winds from this deepening low will make for a favorable environment for steady snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. I see two things working against this setup however: dry air that will be filling in and how warm it currently is out there. That being said, accumulations of 3-6”, locally up to 8”, is likely over far western Garrett County. From there, snow totals drop off substantially, to only a trace likely into Cumberland. The rest of the viewing area will be cloudy, breezy, but free of any sort of winter weather.

After what is sure to be an active two days, we finally quiet down the rest of the week. High pressure will give us some sunshine Wednesday and Thursday with fairly seasonable temperatures. On Friday, clouds will begin to return as the overall pattern sets us up for yet another closed off low into the weekend. This one may be a little closer to the coastline, but otherwise the finer details on storm strength and potential precipitation are still very uncertain. Given the typical way these systems set up, it’s likely we’ll have scattered rain showers across the eastern valleys, with scattered snow showers over the mountains where colder air lingers.

Stay dry out there and have a great Monday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Trending Stories