Chances of heavy rainfall lower as storm passes south

Nova Forecast

Friday: Cloudy with rain showers arriving in the late morning, turning to a steady rain by the late afternoon/early evening. Winds: SSE 5-10 mph, High: 47 (43-51)

Friday night: Cloudy with steady rain, turning heavy at times before wrapping up quickly by sunrise. Winds: SE->N 5-10 mph, Low: 38 (32-41)

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and windy with isolated rain/snow showers, mainly to the west. Winds: NW 15-25 mph, High: 44 (36-46), Low: 31 (26-35)

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s with lows in the middle to upper 20’s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s with lows in the middle to upper 20’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40’s with lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 40’s with lows in the 30’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s with lows in the lower to middle 30’s.

Forecast Discussion

Sunshine was short-lived yesterday, as we ended the day on quite the grey note. More clouds have streamed in overnight, but the early start to your day will be staying dry. As the low to our south develops and heads toward southern Virginia, showers will overspread the northern and western parts of the viewing area through the middle to late morning. These showers will gradually build to a steady rain and fill in across the entire area by this evening. Rain will even be heavy at times tonight, before wrapping up very quickly around sunrise tomorrow. Recent trends keep the storm system a little more south, which means slightly less rain. Northwestern locations will see 0.25-0.75”, while locations closer to I-95 and southern Maryland could still reach 1.50-1.75”.

Given the totals above, flooding is less of a concern at this point, but typical trouble spots bear watching going into Saturday morning. Despite the storm system heading up the East Coast fairly quickly tomorrow, enough lingering moisture will be around in strong northwest flow to create isolated rain and snow showers. On what’s set to be a breezy and brisk day, this precipitation will mainly be confined to the western mountains. Slight chances for at least a few flurries will continue through Saturday night before skies clear out some on Sunday. Thanks to the cold northwest winds, temperatures will remain slightly below average the rest of the weekend.

High pressure is going to be the main player next week, keeping things very quiet. One little wrench in the plans is that an upper level trough will pass through on Monday, giving potential for some light snow showers. Right now, this feature will have to overcome a lack of moisture and overall support, so the chance of any snow looks very minimal at this point. Just expect an uptick in cloud cover and not much else for now. Temperatures begin to moderate back up with a little more sunshine by late next week.

Have a great Friday and weekend, stay dry!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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