A few degrees warmer with little relief in sight

Nova Forecast

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, hot & humid, with isolated PM showers and storms. Winds: SW 8-12 mph, High: 94 (89-97), Heat Index: 97-101

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a lingering shower or storm early. Winds: SW 3-5 mph, Low: 72 (69-75)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered PM showers and storms. Winds: SW 5-10 mph, High: 90 (87-94), Low: 69 (67-72)

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90’s with lows in the lower to middle 70’s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with spotty showers and storms possible. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Forecast Discussion

It didn’t take long yesterday for the heat and humidity to build, and then for storms to fire up and dump plenty of rain across the area. There were a few wind damage reports, but for the most part, the heavy rain of over an inch from Winchester straight into Frederick County (MD) was the bigger story. Today, we’re expecting more of the same as heat will build into the afternoon before isolated showers and storms pop up. The coverage of storms will be a bit lower than yesterday because the stalled front to our north will be weakening while also pulling farther away from us. The most likely places for storm development will be across the mountains and to the north in southern PA from the mid-afternoon into the evening.

Heat index values will be a few degrees lower today as ridging throws some drier air our way. Heading into Wednesday, moisture will bump back up, but temperatures will end up a few degrees cooler thanks to a weakening tropical disturbance heading our direction from the Gulf Coast. Part of the reason it will be closer to the 80’s is because of additional cloud cover and a renewed chance for rain and storms. Heading into Thursday, ridging along the Atlantic Coast will win out for the day, which means likely the only completely dry day in the forecast and a return to the 90’s.

The big possible change on the horizon is a cold front sagging south from the Great Lakes over the weekend, which would bring us back to seasonal temperatures and lower humidity. Of course, that comes at a bit of a cost, as rain chances will be higher Saturday and Sunday as the front crosses through. Friday won’t be nearly as soggy, but after that you’ll have to dodge rounds of rain all weekend. Into next Monday models are indicating the front may end up moving out of the area and drier conditions will prevail, but as we’ve seen so far this summer, it’s likely the front doesn’t drift too far away. As such, spotty storm chances have been kept in the forecast for next Monday for now.

Have a fantastic Tuesday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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