Slow-moving storms could produce heavy rainfall late Thursday

I270 Forecast

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with breaks of sunshine at times. Showers and storms will be developing in the afternoon, continuing to the end of the day. Winds: SSW 5-10 mph, High: 86 (82-90)

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, wrapping up through the night. Some patchy fog will be possible. Winds: S 3-5 mph, Low: 68 (64-71)

Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Winds: SW 5-10 mph, High: 89 (85-92), Low: 69 (65-71)

Saturday: Partly cloudy with isolated AM showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with lows in the 50’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s with lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

Large clusters of storms rocked eastern PA and NJ yesterday, and this left us with nothing much other than a lot of heat and humidity. Those storm clusters zapped the energy from the atmosphere where any storms would have developed and dropped our way just after sunset, so things remained quiet. We’re still very warm and humid this morning, with the old front from yesterday stalled to our north. With that feature fairly close by, there will be a bit more cloud cover today, though we’ll still get well into the 80’s. A weak disturbance in the atmospheric flow will move across the mountains this afternoon, interacting with the stalled front. This will fire off showers and storms between 4-6 PM, with better coverage than yesterday.

These storms will continue into the evening, potentially clustering up in a very weak flow. The Storm Prediction Center did put us into another Slight Risk for severe weather today, mainly because any storms that do cluster up could produce gusty winds. However, given the ingredients in place, severe weather does not look likely. We have a better chance at seeing localized flooding issues if a storm sits over one area for a while, dumping a large amount of rain quickly. Once we get into the overnight hours, storms will fizzle out into Friday morning.

The stalled boundary washes out Friday, but enough moisture and energy will be in place for more scattered showers and storms. Saturday will also remain warm and humid, but a cold front finally arrives by the afternoon to get the stagnant pattern into gear. After a few isolated showers in the AM, we’ll start our dry stretch Saturday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday with high pressure overhead. Highs will be back to seasonal, in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s, with lows in the 50’s and lower 60’s during this time. By next Wednesday, the next cold front will be approaching along with what’s left of Tropical Storm Cristobal, so clouds and rainfall will be starting to return.

Have a great rest of your Thursday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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