Limited storm chances today, rain starts to arrive Wednesday

I270 Forecast

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid, with a stray storm possible over southern PA. Winds: SW 8-12 mph, High: 94 (90-97), Heat Index: 98-102

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. Winds: SW 5-10 mph, Low: 74 (70-77)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid, with isolated PM showers and storms. Winds: SW 8-12 mph, High: 95 (91-98), Heat Index: 100-104, Low: 72 (68-75)

Thursday: Cloudy with rain and storms. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Friday: Cloudy with showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s with lows in the 60’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

4th of July: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with lows in the 60’s.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Forecast Discussion

Has anyone melted out there yet? The heat and humidity really cranked up yesterday, as everyone got into the lower and middle 90’s, and we’re far from done. Today the Atlantic high pressure has nudged back east, and will continue to funnel more heat from the south. High temperatures will once again go all the way into the middle 90’s under plenty of sunshine this afternoon. One difference that won’t be too noticeable is that with high pressure closer to us, some drier air is going to mix in and tamper humidity enough to likely keep us out of Heat Advisory criteria. Either way, it’s still going to be another sweltering day and even night, as it only drops to the 70’s tonight.

A stalled front to our north and west will finally start sagging south tomorrow, pushing high pressure back to the east. Stifling heat (temperatures in the middle and upper 90’s) and humidity (dewpoints back above 70 degrees) will push heat index values well into the triple digits, and a Heat Advisory could easily be issued. The only relief will come with isolated showers and storms late in the afternoon. Rain chances will continue to increase into Thursday as the front crosses the area. With plenty of available moisture and instability from all the heat, a few severe storms with strong winds are possible. The bigger concern will be the chance for heavy rain, especially for areas that get stuck under any slow-moving bands.

All of this rain will finally end the wave of heat nicely; as we’ll be all the way back down into the 70’s by Friday. With the front still just south of us, showers and a few storms will keep us soggy to end the week. Models have come into much better agreement for Friday’s forecast, but there is still some uncertainty for the holiday weekend. Not only could the front stay close by, but the upper level low that pushed the front our way will be almost overhead Saturday into Sunday. These two features combined could still create some isolated to scattered shower activity, but it doesn’t look like a total washout for the 4th of July. At the very least, we’re looking at much cooler and more manageable temperatures through the holiday weekend.

Stay cool and have a great Tuesday!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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