Arctic blast tomorrow, winter storm still expected late Sunday

Weather

Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and getting cold. Winds: N 10-20 mph, Low: 17 (13-20)

Saturday: Increasing clouds and staying cold. Winds: N 5-10 mph, High: 28 (24-31), Low: 12 (8-15)

Sunday: Cloudy with snow arriving in the late afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s with lows in the 20’s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and windy with AM mixed precipitation. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30’s with lows in the 20’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 30’s with lows in the lower to middle 20’s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s with lows in the 20’s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30’s with lows in the upper teens to lower 20’s.

Forecast Discussion

There is a storm system churning away well off the Atlantic Coast, and while this system won’t cause us any headaches, it will bring our next big change to the weather later today. Northerly winds are going to kick up quite a bit on the backside of that storm, and after briefly climbing into the 40’s again this afternoon, temperatures will drop like a rock tonight. Bundle up, as we’ll be down all the way into the teens again by Saturday morning.

It doesn’t get much better from there, as bitter cold air holds on through the entire first half of the weekend. We’ll only recover into the 20’s tomorrow afternoon, and then we could see our coldest night of the winter so far with lows possibly in the single digits by Sunday morning. Next up the major storm system we’ve been keeping a very close eye on for Sunday night. With such cold air around, we’re likely to see a quick burst of snowfall across the whole area around dinner time. From there is when it gets complicated, as a small shift in the track of this storm (only 20 miles would make a huge difference) could mean either a lot more snowfall across the entire area or just ice and rain and very little snow.

Current data points to this storm tracking right over the DC metro. Along and east of this track is where the quick burst of snow will quickly go to just mixed precipitation and rain, so only a few inches of snow is likely. Between I-95 and I-81 is the transition zone, where the exact track of the storm will play a major role. As you head further west, you’ll quickly go from 3” totals to closer to 8” totals, but no matter where you are the mixing, and the ice will still make it an absolute mess. The highest impact snowfall is expected to be west of I-81 into the mountains, where 8-12” could accumulate. Again, no matter where you are and what you see, it’s going to be very rough out there into Monday morning. This forecast is likely to be adjusted in the coming days as well, so stick with us for the latest. We’ll be clearing out Monday afternoon, and we will stay quiet into the middle of next week.

Have a great Friday and stay safe and warm out there this weekend!

Meteorologist Damon Matson

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